William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2008
BUSH
Posted at 7:58 p.m. ET
Watching President Bush and his economic team work through the financial crisis this week reminded me of the first-term Bush, not the Bush who has been captured, late in his presidency, by Condi Rice and the mush patrol.
Charles Krauthammer gives a tentative assessment of the president and his legacy. Many more assesssments will be written in the coming months. Most will be negative and self-serving. This one deserves a look.
For the past 150 years, most American war presidents -- most notably Lincoln, Wilson and Roosevelt -- have entered (or reentered) office knowing war was looming. Not so George W. Bush. Not so the war on terror. The 9/11 attacks literally came out of the blue.
Indeed, the three presidential campaigns between the fall of the Berlin Wall and Sept. 11, 2001, were the most devoid of foreign policy debate of any in the 20th century. The commander-in-chief question that dominates our campaigns today was almost nowhere in evidence during our '90s holiday from history.
When I asked President Bush during an interview Monday to reflect on this oddity, he cast himself back to early 2001, recalling what he expected his presidency would be about: education reform, tax cuts and military transformation from a Cold War structure to a more mobile force adapted to smaller-scale 21st-century conflict.
But a wartime president he became. And that is how history will both remember and judge him.
Krauthammer describes the president's tone as one of equanimity.
It is precisely that quality that allowed him to order the surge in Iraq in the face of intense opposition from the political establishment (of both parties), the foreign policy establishment (led by the feckless Iraq Study Group), the military establishment (as chronicled by Woodward) and public opinion itself. The surge then effected the most dramatic change in the fortunes of an American war since the summer of 1864.
And...
But the question remains as to whether the now-likely outcome -- transforming a virulently aggressive enemy state in the heart of the Middle East into a strategic ally in the war on terror -- was worth it. I suspect the ultimate answer will be far more favorable than it is today.
The greatest achievement:
When I asked the president about his one unambiguous achievement, keeping us safe for seven years -- about 6 1/2 years longer than anybody thought possible just after Sept. 11 -- he was quick to credit both the soldiers keeping the enemy at bay abroad and the posse of law enforcement and intelligence officials hardening our defenses at home.
Finally...
What the president did note with some pride, however, is that beyond preventing a second attack, he is bequeathing to his successor the kinds of powers and institutions the next president will need to prevent further attack and successfully prosecute the long war...
...In this respect, Bush is much like Truman, who developed the sinews of war for a new era (the Department of Defense, the CIA, the NSA), expanded the powers of the presidency, established a new doctrine for active intervention abroad, and ultimately engaged in a war (Korea) -- also absent an attack on the United States -- that proved highly unpopular.
So unpopular that Truman left office disparaged and highly out of favor. History has revised that verdict. I have little doubt that Bush will be the subject of a similar reconsideration.
I hope so. No matter how you feel about Bush, the gross unfairness of the treatment he's received by the press has done the nation no good. Because of who occupies our universities these days, I suspect it will take a full generation for Bush's positive contributions to be recognized.
September 19, 2008. Permalink 
ASTONISHING UPDATE AT 5:48 P.M. ET: From WCBS in New York:
Already under fire for his tax troubles, Manhattan Congressman Charles Rangel really put his foot in his mouth on Friday.
In a CBS 2 HD exclusive interview Rep. Rangel called Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin "disabled."
The question was simple. Why are the Democrats so afraid of Palin and her popularity.
The answer was astonishing.
"You got to be kind to the disabled," Rangel said.
McCain team, get on it. Demand that Obama separate himself from Rangel and demand that Rangel step down as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
UPDATE AT 5:21 P.M. ET: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama said on Friday he supported efforts by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to shore up confidence in the financial markets and said he would hold off from presenting his own economic recovery plan.
COMMENT: When you don't have a plan, and have no background in economics, and have barely set foot in the U.S. Senate, you hold off. McCain team, get all over this. Rip into Obama. Point out that in a moment of crisis the man showed no leadership at all. If you can't do this, McCain team, you shouldn't be in politics. A defining moment.
UPDATE AT 2:57 P.M. ET: It's always inspiring to see a major-league TV talking head, often an empty head as well, properly put down. Go here, to the great NewsBusters site, to see pro-Obama Campbell Brown handled correctly. You'll cheer.
POLLS
Posted at 2:23 p.m. ET
All trackers for the day are out, and they tell a fascinating story. Rasmussen, as already reported here, has the race tied, as does Battleground. Hotline has Obama up by one.
But Gallup has Obama up by five. Thus, Gallup suddenly becomes the outlier.
We stress once more that these are snapshots, and that there's a margin of error. Given that margin of error, all these polls could actually be close. But the Gallup result stands out.
New Marist state polls out today are not encouraging for Senator McCain, but they tend to differ from more optimistic polls published by others in recent days. Marist has Obama up five in Pennsylvania, two in Ohio and nine in Michigan. I'd be careful about these results.
The candidates and parties do their own polling, but those results are never released.
There should be more state polls later today.
September 19, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 10:53 A.M. ET: Second tracker of the day, Battleground, is out and shows, as Rasmussen does, a tie. Two more trackers will be released this afternoon. We'll be looking for any trends that show that McCain has stopped this week's bleeding in his standing. We stress that these are daily snapshots in time. It's the trend that counts.
UPDATE AT 10:22 A.M. ET: First tracker for the day is out. Rasmussen once again has the race tied, as he did yesterday. Rasmussen is the holdout among major pollsters in not showing a lead for Obama. We await Gallup this afternoon.
UPDATE AT 8:07 A.M. ET: FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Global stock markets roared higher on Friday after news of a possible U.S. government plan to rescue banks from toxic mortgage debt raised a collective sense of hope amid the world's worst financial crisis in decades.
COMMENT: If it continues, this could have a positive effect on the McCain campaign.
EVEN FAINTER PRAISE
Posted at 6:53 a.m. ET
One of the great differences between Bill and Hillary Clinton is that Hillary can hide her deceptions pretty well, but Bill, well, the truth just comes out. He has, uh, certain feelings about this campaign. And they've come out. ABC News reports:
ABC News' Jennifer Parker reports: Former President Bill Clinton has largely kept himself out of the public eye since his wife lost the Democratic primary to Barack Obama.
However in a rare television interview tonight, the former president called Republican presidential candidate John McCain "a great man" and praised GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin as an "instinctively effective candidate."
On a day when Obama sought to convince voters that he's best able to handle the economic crisis, the former president said it was his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., who gave today "the most detailed position."
Ouch plus. The man knows exactly what he's saying.
The two-term former Democratic president invited Obama to lunch in his New York office last week and has agreed to campaign for him in the coming weeks.
But if tonight's interview is any indication, Bill Clinton will not be lavishing praise on his wife's former primary rival.
You don't think he wants Obama to lose, do you? Nah. He'd never want that, just because it would give his wife a clear field in 2012. No chance.
Clinton, said there could still be "some unforeseen development," perhaps in the debates, he said, that could threaten a Democratic win.
"Barring some unforeseen development like in-- something happens in the debates we don't know about. I-- I-- I-- it may not be apparent in the polls until last week or two of the election. But, I believe that it will be apparent on election day. I think that-- I think Senator Obama will win this election," Clinton said.
What a slam-dunk prediction. Would you bet good money based on that?
And his opinion of Sarah Palin?
"She's a-- she's an instinctively effective candidate," he said, "And with a compelling story. I think it was exciting to some, that, that she was a woman. It was exciting that she was from Alaska. It was exciting that she's sort of like the person she is. And she grew up in a, came up in a political culture and a religious culture that is probably well to the right of the American center. But, she didn't basically define herself in those terms," Clinton said.
The Obama campaign will love that. I can just hear the congratulatory phone calls.
Do you think Obama feels a knife in the back? I wonder why he's wincing.
September 19, 2008. Permalink
THE McCAIN MOMENT?
Posted at 6:25 a.m. ET
The first presidential debate will take place a week from tonight, in Oxford, Mississippi. It will be moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS. He is not known for conservative leanings.
The vice-presidential debate will take place the following Thursday, moderated by Gwen Ifill, also of PBS (hmm). Ms. Ifill, one of my least favorite journalists, has also never tasted the joys of the right.
I don't know how two PBS personalities got chosen, but I prefer not to indulge in conspiracy theories. In the three presidential and one vice-presidential debates, there is not a single conservative journalist moderating. The other moderators, added to the ones just listed, are Tom Brokaw, on October 7th, and Bob Schieffer, on October 15th. At least both are professionals, with some self-respect, and I'd imagine they'll play it down the middle. As for Lehrer and Ifill, they may have a different view of where the middle is.
A failure in one debate is not necessarily fatal. President Ronald Reagan got trounced in his first debate with Walter Mondale in 1984, but Reagan went on to win the election in a landslide. Nor should we worry that much about Sarah Palin, unless Gwen Ifill tries to trip her up, a distinct possibility in Ifill's case. All Sarah has to do is hold her own.
The period between now and next week's debate is crucial. John McCain has been off his game. Obama has been increasingly belligerent, and the belligerence has worked. The financial turmoil has helped Obama, even though he probably doesn't know what a hedge fund is. I don't want to see McCain going into the debate looking weak or disorganized. That's when the sharks pounce.
How does McCain get back on his game? First, by being vigorous. I've noticed that McCain's energy level affects his public image. He's best when he's animated, determined, alive. When he's just explainin' things, he's dull.
Second, unleash Sarah. I want to see ads where she looks directly into the camera, speaks to her people and says, "My name is Sarah Palin. I'm the governor of Alaska, our largest state by area, and John McCain's choice for vice president of the United States. When I'm vice president, you, the American family, will have a seat at the table, You, and not the special interests, will be represented as you've never been before. I not only will represent you. I am you.
Third, attack the do-nothing Democratic congress, just as Harry Truman attacked the do-nothing Republican congress. Name the names of those who should have been investigating the financial markets all along, and didn't.
Fourth, engage in something dramatic, like demanding that Congress be called back into session to pass major economic and energy legislation.
Fifth, reader Claude Williams points out that there's not much going on between McCain and youth. McCain/Palin should not abandon the youth vote to Obama. Instead, they should prove that they are the voice of the future, and Obama the voice of the liberal past. Young people will respond. They won't listen to their parents, but they'll listen to their grandparents. McCain is granddad, and this is one time when his age is a plus. Age did not hurt Reagan, and it did not hurt Eisenhower.
McCain is about four points behind right now in national polls. I want him going into that debate as he narrows the gap. That will rattle Obama, who's proved repeatedly that he can't handle pressure.
September 19, 2008. Permalink
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2008
NOTE AT 7:41 P.M. ET: There some internet attention being given to a new Pew Research poll showing the presidential race tied at 46-46. Ignore it. Always notice when a poll was taken, and this one was taken September 9-14. That means the last people polled were surveyed Sunday, just when the black financial headlines were starting to hit. This poll is obsolete.
UPDATE AT 7:34 P.M. ET: From The New York Sun: Wall Street rallied in a stunning late-session turnaround today, shooting higher and hurtling the Dow Jones industrials up 410 points following a report that the federal government might create an entity to absorb banks' bad debt. The report also cooled investors' fervor for the safest types of investments like government debt.
BIG TEN - WITHOUT KNEE PADS
Posted at 7:18 p.m. ET
We vote by states on November 4th. The daily trackers give an indication of national trends, but it's the state polls, which, unfortunately, are taken only periodically, that may bring us closer to the truth.
The Big Ten Battleground Poll is out today covering Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. We stress that this is one poll, that if its methodology is flawed in one state, it's likely to be flawed in all the others, and that it's only a snapshot in time.
But it's fun, so let's see what they found, as reported by The New York Times:
OHIO - 46-45 Obama. Disappointing for McCain. This is a must-win for him, and other polls put him slightly ahead.
MICHIGAN - 48-44 Obama. Another disappointment for the GOP, although Michigan stays competitive. If McCain can pull out Michigan, he likely wins the election.
PENNSYLVANIA - A tie. Excellent news for McCain. If he can win Pennsylvania, it's a huge plus, assuming his other states fall in line, a huge assumption in this week of slumping McCain poll numbers. But the election is November 4th.
INDIANA - 47-43 McCain. McCain must win in this traditionally Republican state, and he should be further ahead. Another Indiana poll, by the way, has Obama leading.
WISCONSIN - 45-44 Obama. Encouraging for McCain. Lots of liberals in Wisconsin, and it's always a problem for the GOP. But McCain needs better weeks than this to pull it out.
IOWA - Tied at 45-45. I don't believe this one. Other polls show Obama well ahead. This is an outlier.
ILLINOIS - Obama blowout. His home turf. And dead Dems vote in Chicago.
MINNESOTA - 47-45 Obama. Not bad. A traditional Democratic state. McCain remains competitive, but I wouldn't bet the computer on his winning here.
Well, they call it the Big Ten poll, but they only got to eight. Given the education provided to today's kids, most wouldn't know the statistical difference.
Just use the above with caution. Things change day by day. Unfortunately, this week they seem to be changing in in the wrong direction. McCain has work to do.
September 18, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 4:28 P.M. ET: The new Hotline tracker just out shows Obama up four, a one-point gain since yesterday. The polls are now unifying around that "four" number.
UPDATE AT 3:28 P.M. ET: From Reuters: Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican, is questioning whether Palin has enough foreign-policy experience to serve as the country’s second-in-command. “She doesn’t have any foreign policy credentials,” Hagel told the Omaha World-Herald. “You get a passport for the first time in your life last year? I mean, I don’t know what you can say. You can’t say anything.”
COMMENT: As the great philosopher and thinker Jerry Lewis once said, "Bad looks you can change, stupid is forever." Hagel is leaving the Senate in part because he probably couldn't have survived a primary in his own state. He's a Republican in name only, and his foreign-policy views are incoherent at best. This looks like an attempt to be named Obama's secretary of state. It would be a disgrace.
UPDATE AT 1:54 P.M. ET: From AP: Michelle Obama says voters need to decide this election by examining the issues, not because they like a candidate or think ``she's cute.'' Obama spoke in Charlotte on Thursday morning at a women's round-table on economic issues. The crowd roared at her remark disparaging voters who might cast a ballot because of a woman's looks, a clear jab at Republican vice presidential pick Sarah Palin.
COMMENT: Imagine if a conservative had said that.
TRACKERS
Posted at 1:28 P.M. ET
Both the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers are now up for the day. As noted below, Rasmussen has the race tied. Gallup, which had Obama up three yesterday, now has him up four, which it calls a statistically significant lead, and is consistent with the CBS and Quinnipiac polls posted yesterday.
There is now no question, based on trends, not a daily snapshot, that Obama's position has improved importantly in the last week. That doesn't mean it can't be reversed, but I think we have to face the music. I'm only making an informed guess, but surely the economic shocks have had their impact. And Sarah Palin's first sit-down, with the sneering Charlie Gibson, didn't do her much good. Gallup says:
The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain. There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied. But beginning this week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.
Let me stress that this is one pollster's view. Gallup is interpreting its own polls, and must both defend and employ the results.
The McCain balloon was punctured in the last week. And the McCain team began to get sloppy with facts and public statements.
McCain is surrounded by sharp people who've been instrumental in bringing him back from the political near-dead. Guys, work your miracles.
And start planning a cross-country whistlestop, Truman style, with McCain and Palin together, and with a chance for voters to come on board and meet them at stops across the land.
September 18, 2008 Permalink
UPDATE AT 12:51 P.M. ET: The Battleground tracker just out has McCain up by two. However, this poll apparently tracks over a seven-day period, which, given the volatile nature of the last week, might not produce an accurate final result for today. I'd be cautious.
UPDATE AT 9:36 A.M. ET: The Rasmussen tracker is out. It reports a tie. Just a few days ago McCain was up three. There is now no major poll showing McCain ahead. We await the Gallup and Hotline trackers this afternoon.
EXTORTION
Posted at 8:37 a.m. ET
We've written before at Urgent Agenda about the possibility of a kind of extortion in this campaign: Voters would be told there'd be some type of "trouble" unless Obama were elected. Well, we're starting to see it, as The NewYork Sun reports:
LONDON — Are American voters susceptible to blackmail? Ever since Sarah Palin lifted John McCain's campaign, it is becoming increasingly clear that America will be branded racist if Europe does not wake up on November 5 to find that Barack Obama has been elected.
Here is what Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian had to say last week: "If [the election] is deemed to have been about race — that Obama was rejected because of his colour — the world's verdict will be harsh."
I wonder who decides if it was about race. Is there something like the Nobel Prize committee?
Now both American democracy and American capitalism are on trial in the court of European public opinion. And the only plea that the court will accept from America is: guilty.
Well, I'm sure they wouldn't want convicted felons participating in their defense, so why don't we bring those troops home?
Europeans find American culture wars at once fascinating and appalling. But their view of the debate is filtered through the liberal press: CNN and the other networks, the New York Times, the New York Review of Books, the Washington Post, and the Huffington Post.
No wonder they think we're guilty.
I'm not shocked at this, for it was bound to happen. It will probably get worse. Last week a distinguished black law professor wondered, in the pages of the Washington Post, how blacks would react to an Obama defeat. In fairness, it was a dignified and restrained article. But the idea that voters should worry about how others might "react" if Obama loses is offensive to the very idea of democracy. Will there be some implication of violence? Of social upheaval?
This could be a Sister Souljah moment for Obama. He should publicly, and dramatically, denounce any hint of extortion, and name the perpetrators if he has to.
September 18, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 7:37 A.M. ET: A new national Quinnipiac poll has Barack Obama up by four points, roughly confirming what we find in almost all the other polls. Obama has snapped back, helped by the economy and a McCain who's been off his stride.
SARAH
Posted at 7:18 p.m. ET
The McCain/Palin ticket has run into some rough waters, provided primarily by Wall Street. We'll await today's trackers, but don't be shocked if they all show Obama in the lead. Given the financial crisis, and the beating that Sarah Palin has taken from the boisterous brotherhood of beltway bores, it won't be surprising. McCain has now got to fight back.
I watched Sarah Palin last night as she was interviewed by Sean Hannity. Now, it was a soft interview. Hannity is a conservative, and he wasn't out to trip her. But still, I was amazed at how much better she was, how much more relaxed she was, than last week, when confronting the professorial Charlie Gibson. Palin is a quick study. She'll be debating Joe Biden in a few weeks, and all she has to do is hold her own. Unless some in-the-tank moderator tries to mess her up, she might well exceed expectations by quite a bit.
A little of the Sarah magic is gone because so much attention has shifted to the economic mess, and because the press assault is having its impact. But I think she can get the spotlight back. It should be a priority of the McCain campaign because she's a major draw, and a great political asset. The Los Angeles Times reports that she's become a hot item on the fundraising circuit as well:
While the political and news world was focused on the glitzy Hollywood haul of money by the Obama campaign's Brinks trucks Tuesday night, it turns out lesser-light Sarah Palin was gathering in a good deal more than a million bucks at three separate fundraisers back in Ohio.
She did a country club event in Canton that raked in more than $1 million by itself Monday night, a Dayton breakfast and a $2,500-per-plate luncheon in Cincinnati.
Once totaled, the 18-hour sum will exceed the entire $1.35 million Palin spent on her successful insurgent gubernatorial general election campaign in Alaska two years ago.
And...
"What we've seen over the past 17 days or so is nothing short of amazing when it comes to grass-roots response," said Kevin DeWine, deputy chairman of the Republican Party of Ohio, a must-win state for GOP White House hopes since 1916.
Palin's fresh-faced, down-to-earth appeal has even spread to Western states. Organizers of a Sept. 24 fundraiser in Wyoming featuring Palin report ticket sales to people from as far away as Idaho and Montana.
"We're really talking about a regional type of excitement," Maggie Scarlett, McCain's Wyoming co-finance chair, told Erika Bolstad of the Anchorage Daily News.
Palin will be in New York this coming week. Don't be surprised if she shows up on "Saturday Night Live."
September 18, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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